Primera A (Colombia) · Fri, Oct 9 · 01:10 · Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios
Likeliest: Millonarios win · 55%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortaleza CEIF18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Millonarios55%53%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 29% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortaleza CEIF
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 4 · at Deportivo Pasto (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Deportes Tolima (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)1-4
- Sep 11 · at Jaguares de Córdoba (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Independiente Santa Fe (A)2-2
Millonarios
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 30 · at Independiente Medellín (A)2-2
- Sep 25 · at Atlético Nacional (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Boyacá Chicó FC (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · at Cúcuta Deportivo (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Deportivo Cali (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Fortaleza CEIF | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-3 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.