Serie B (Brazil) · Sun, Sep 27 · 21:30 · Fortaleza vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Fortaleza win · 56%
We make it 49% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortaleza56%56%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Athletic Club16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 45% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortaleza
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 20 · at Londrina (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Ceará (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Avaí (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Goiás (A)1-0
- Aug 31 · v Operário-PR (H)1-1
Athletic Club
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · v Botafogo-SP (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Juventude (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Elche (H)1-1
- Sep 8 · at Cuiabá (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Fortaleza | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.