Serie B (Brazil) · Mon, Oct 12 · 19:00 · Fortaleza vs CRB
Likeliest: Fortaleza win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortaleza47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
CRB24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortaleza
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 7 · at América Mineiro (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Náutico (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Athletic Club (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · at Londrina (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Ceará (H)1-1
CRB
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 7 · v Atlético Goianiense (H)3-1
- Oct 2 · at São Bernardo (A)1-3
- Sep 27 · v Cuiabá (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at Ponte Preta (A)0-1
- Sep 16 · v Sport Recife (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Fortaleza | CRB |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.