Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Thu, Aug 6 · 00:30 · Fortaleza vs Palmeiras
Likeliest: Palmeiras win · 57%
A 57% away win. The market says 52%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortaleza18%24%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Palmeiras57%52%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 54% | −25 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 48% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 76% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 31% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortaleza
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 2 · at Palmeiras (A)0-3
- Jul 29 · v Botafogo-SP (H)1-0
- Jul 22 · at Vila Nova FC (A)1-2
- Jul 18 · v Novorizontino (H)1-0
- Jul 12 · at Atlético GO (A)0-1
Palmeiras
WinWinLossWinWin
- Aug 2 · v Fortaleza (H)3-0
- Jul 30 · at Vitória (A)4-0
- Jul 26 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)1-2
- Jul 22 · at Coritiba (A)3-1
- May 31 · v Chapecoense (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Fortaleza | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 6-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.