3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Saarbrücken
Likeliest: Fortuna Düsseldorf win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Düsseldorf44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
1. FC Saarbrücken29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 14 · at Preußen Münster (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · v SC Verl (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Alemannia Aachen (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · at SSV Jahn Regensburg (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v MSV Duisburg (H)2-1
1. FC Saarbrücken
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 13 · v MSV Duisburg (H)2-4
- Oct 10 · at SC Fortuna Köln (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Preußen Münster (A)3-3
- Sep 12 · v FC Ingolstadt 04 (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 1. FC Saarbrücken |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.