2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Apr 10 · 16:30 · Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel
Likeliest: Fortuna Düsseldorf win · 41%
A 34% away win. The market says 29%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Düsseldorf41%45%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Holstein Kiel34%29%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 60% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 4 · at Kaiserslautern (A)0-3
- Mar 22 · v Hertha BSC (H)2-5
- Mar 14 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · at Nürnberg (A)1-0
- Feb 27 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)2-1
Holstein Kiel
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Apr 5 · v Preußen Münster (H)0-0
- Mar 22 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)3-2
- Mar 14 · v Nürnberg (H)2-3
- Mar 7 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)0-2
- Feb 28 · v Elversberg (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.