3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 · Fortuna Düsseldorf vs MSV Duisburg
Likeliest: MSV Duisburg win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Düsseldorf35%36%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+2
OursMarket
MSV Duisburg37%38%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 49% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 6 · at SC Fortuna Köln (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · v VfB Stuttgart II U21 (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-5
- Aug 15 · v TSG Hoffenheim II U23 (H)0-2
- Aug 7 · at SV Waldhof Mannheim (A)1-2
MSV Duisburg
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 5 · at SSV Jahn Regensburg (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v FC Würzburger Kickers (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · v SV 07 Elversberg (H)1-3
- Aug 15 · at SC Verl (A)4-2
- Aug 8 · v SV Meppen (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Düsseldorf | MSV Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.