DFB Pokal (Germany) · Sun, Aug 23 · 16:00 · Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: Fortuna Düsseldorf win · 43%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Düsseldorf43%14%+29
OursMarket
Draw23%19%+4
OursMarket
SC Freiburg34%68%−33
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 66% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 32% | +33 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 86% | −29 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 81% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 17% | +39 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 15 · v TSG Hoffenheim II U23 (H)0-2
- Aug 7 · at SV Waldhof Mannheim (A)1-2
- May 17 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)0-3
- May 10 · v Elversberg (H)3-1
- May 2 · at Schalke 04 (A)0-1
SC Freiburg
WinLossWinLossWin
- Aug 20 · at Motherwell (A)3-1
- May 20 · v Aston Villa (H)0-3
- May 16 · v RB Leipzig (H)4-1
- May 10 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-3
- May 7 · v Sporting Braga (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Düsseldorf | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-8 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.