Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 12 · 18:00 · Fortuna Sittard vs AFC Ajax
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 72%
A tight one: we make it 72% for the away win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard11%14%−3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
AFC Ajax72%68%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 86% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 17% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Sep 6 · at ADO Den Haag (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · at FC Groningen (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)0-2
- Aug 15 · v SC Cambuur (H)3-1
- Aug 8 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)2-2
AFC Ajax
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 5 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-3
- Aug 30 · at SC Telstar (A)4-0
- Aug 27 · v FC Sion (H)5-3
- Aug 20 · at FC Sion (A)4-2
- Aug 16 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.