Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Dec 6 · 17:45 · Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
Likeliest: Ajax win · 39%
A 37% home win. The market says 26%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard37%26%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Ajax39%49%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 74% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 34% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Nov 29 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-1
- Nov 22 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-0
- Oct 31 · at PSV (A)2-5
- Oct 28 · at Gemert (A)1-0
Ajax
LossLossLossLossWin
- Nov 30 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
- Nov 25 · v Benfica (H)0-2
- Nov 22 · v Excelsior (H)1-2
- Nov 9 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-2
- Nov 5 · v Galatasaray (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.