Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Dec 21 · 15:45 · Fortuna Sittard vs AZ
Likeliest: AZ win · 46%
A 31% home win. The market says 22%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard31%22%+9
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
AZ46%54%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 46% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 78% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 29% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Dec 17 · v Almere City (H)2-3
- Dec 13 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · v Ajax (H)1-3
- Nov 29 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-1
- Nov 22 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
AZ
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Dec 18 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)0-0
- Dec 11 · at Drita (A)3-0
- Dec 7 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-2
- Dec 3 · at PEC Zwolle (A)3-1
- Nov 30 · at FC Twente (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.