Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Feb 20 · 19:00 · Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
Likeliest: Fortuna Sittard win · 39%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Excelsior38%32%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 52% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 57% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 68% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 56% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Feb 14 · at Ajax (A)1-4
- Feb 7 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)2-2
- Feb 1 · at Heracles Almelo (A)1-2
- Jan 25 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · v PSV (H)1-2
Excelsior
DrawDrawDrawWinLoss
- Feb 14 · v AZ (H)1-2
- Feb 6 · at NAC Breda (A)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Ajax (H)2-2
- Jan 24 · at FC Twente (A)0-0
- Jan 21 · at AZ (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.