Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Oct 25 · 11:15 · Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
Likeliest: Fortuna Sittard win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard39%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Excelsior35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v AFC Ajax (H)1-5
- Sep 6 · at ADO Den Haag (A)3-2
Excelsior
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 16 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-4
- Oct 11 · v FC Groningen (H)1-5
- Sep 19 · at AFC Ajax (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.