Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Mar 21 · 15:30 · Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 43%
A 33% home win. The market says 16%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard33%16%+17
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+3
OursMarket
FC Twente43%63%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 58% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 37% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 84% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 20% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 14 · at FC Volendam (A)2-1
- Mar 8 · v Telstar (H)1-4
- Feb 28 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)3-2
- Feb 20 · v Excelsior (H)2-1
- Feb 14 · at Ajax (A)1-4
FC Twente
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 15 · v FC Utrecht (H)0-2
- Mar 8 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)4-1
- Mar 1 · v Feyenoord (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · v FC Groningen (H)2-1
- Feb 15 · at Telstar (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.