Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 10 · 18:00 · Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 70%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 70% for the away win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard12%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%19%0
OursMarket
FC Twente70%66%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 14% | 19% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
LossWinWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v AFC Ajax (H)1-5
- Sep 6 · at ADO Den Haag (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · at FC Groningen (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)0-2
FC Twente
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 20 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · v ADO Den Haag (H)2-0
- Sep 9 · v SC Telstar (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at FC Groningen (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · at SC Cambuur (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.