Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 3 · 12:30 · Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 50%
A 28% home win. The market says 17%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard28%17%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+2
OursMarket
Feyenoord50%63%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 63% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 37% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 83% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 21% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · v NAC Breda (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at AZ (A)0-2
- Mar 21 · v FC Twente (H)1-2
- Mar 14 · at FC Volendam (A)2-1
Feyenoord
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Apr 25 · v FC Groningen (H)3-1
- Apr 12 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · at FC Volendam (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Ajax (H)1-1
- Mar 15 · v Excelsior (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.