Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Nov 29 · 17:45 · Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: Fortuna Sittard win · 68%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard68%44%+24
OursMarket
Draw18%27%−9
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo14%29%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 71% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 56% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 73% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 61% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Nov 22 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-0
- Oct 31 · at PSV (A)2-5
- Oct 28 · at Gemert (A)1-0
- Oct 25 · v FC Groningen (H)1-2
Heracles Almelo
LossWinWinWinWin
- Nov 22 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)4-2
- Nov 8 · at Excelsior (A)2-1
- Nov 2 · v PEC Zwolle (H)8-2
- Oct 29 · at NAC Breda (A)4-1
- Oct 25 · at FC Volendam (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Fortuna Sittard form·Heracles Almelo form·Head-to-head record