Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Apr 12 · 10:15 · Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda
Likeliest: Fortuna Sittard win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 33%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard49%33%+16
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
NAC Breda27%40%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 60% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 67% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 45% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 4 · at AZ (A)0-2
- Mar 21 · v FC Twente (H)1-2
- Mar 14 · at FC Volendam (A)2-1
- Mar 8 · v Telstar (H)1-4
- Feb 28 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)3-2
NAC Breda
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Apr 5 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)0-0
- Mar 21 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-2
- Mar 15 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-6
- Mar 8 · v Feyenoord (H)3-3
- Feb 27 · at Telstar (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.