Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 10 · 14:45 · Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: Fortuna Sittard win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard47%45%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle32%30%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 70% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- May 3 · v Feyenoord (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · v NAC Breda (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at AZ (A)0-2
- Mar 21 · v FC Twente (H)1-2
PEC Zwolle
WinLossDrawLossWin
- May 3 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-0
- Apr 23 · at PSV (A)1-6
- Apr 12 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Apr 5 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-5
- Mar 21 · v NAC Breda (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.