Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Jan 17 · 19:00 · Fortuna Sittard vs PSV
Likeliest: PSV win · 50%
A 28% home win. The market says 13%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard28%13%+15
OursMarket
Draw22%18%+4
OursMarket
PSV50%69%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 31% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 87% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 82% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 16% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Jan 11 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)2-2
- Dec 21 · v AZ (H)4-3
- Dec 17 · v Almere City (H)2-3
- Dec 13 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · v Ajax (H)1-3
PSV
WinWinWinWinWin
- Jan 14 · at FC Den Bosch (A)4-1
- Jan 10 · v Excelsior (H)5-1
- Dec 21 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-1
- Dec 16 · v GVVV (H)3-0
- Dec 13 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-3
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 8-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.