Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Aug 15 · 19:00 · Fortuna Sittard vs SC Cambuur
Likeliest: Fortuna Sittard win · 40%
A 35% away win. The market says 22%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard40%56%−16
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
SC Cambuur35%22%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 63% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 78% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 44% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 72% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Aug 8 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)2-2
- May 17 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
- May 10 · v PEC Zwolle (H)3-2
- May 3 · v Feyenoord (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-2
SC Cambuur
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Aug 7 · v Excelsior (H)0-4
- Apr 24 · v Vitesse (H)2-1
- Apr 17 · at De Graafschap (A)1-3
- Apr 10 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v FC Dordrecht (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | SC Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.