Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Feb 7 · 20:00 · Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: Fortuna Sittard win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 33%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fortuna Sittard47%33%+14
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam30%39%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 53% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 59% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 61% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 67% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 46% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fortuna Sittard
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Feb 1 · at Heracles Almelo (A)1-2
- Jan 25 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · v PSV (H)1-2
- Jan 11 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)2-2
- Dec 21 · v AZ (H)4-3
Sparta Rotterdam
WinLossWinWinWin
- Jan 31 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
- Jan 25 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-0
- Jan 18 · at Feyenoord (A)4-3
- Jan 15 · v FC Volendam (H)1-2
- Jan 11 · v Heracles Almelo (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Fortuna Sittard | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Fortuna Sittard form·Sparta Rotterdam form·Head-to-head record