USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 22:00 · Forward Madison FC vs Portland Hearts of Pine
Likeliest: Forward Madison FC win · 60%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Forward Madison FC60%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Portland Hearts of Pine18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Forward Madison FC
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Westchester SC (A)2-3
- Oct 3 · at Fort Wayne FC (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v AV Alta FC (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)0-1
Portland Hearts of Pine
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v AC Boise (H)1-2
- Oct 4 · at Spokane Velocity FC (A)3-3
- Sep 26 · v Sarasota Paradise (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v AV Alta FC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Forward Madison FC | Portland Hearts of Pine |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.