USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 23:00 · Forward Madison FC vs Union Omaha SC
Likeliest: Forward Madison FC win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Forward Madison FC49%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
Union Omaha SC24%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Forward Madison FC
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Portland Hearts of Pine (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · at Westchester SC (A)2-3
- Oct 3 · at Fort Wayne FC (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v AV Alta FC (H)3-0
Union Omaha SC
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Westchester SC (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Fort Wayne FC (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Greenville Triumph SC (A)3-1
- Sep 20 · v One Knoxville SC (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Forward Madison FC | Union Omaha SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.