Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sun, Oct 18 · 19:15 · Fram Reykjavík vs ÍA Akranes
Likeliest: Fram Reykjavík win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fram Reykjavík55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
ÍA Akranes24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 2.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fram Reykjavík
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v KR Reykjavík (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Keflavík IF (A)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Breidablik Kópavogur (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at Víkingur Reykjavík (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v KA Akureyri (H)2-2
ÍA Akranes
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 11 · at Víkingur Reykjavík (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Breidablik Kópavogur (H)4-1
- Sep 13 · at KR Reykjavík (A)1-5
- Sep 6 · v KR Reykjavík (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · at Valur Reykjavík (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Fram Reykjavík | ÍA Akranes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-3 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.