UEFA Nations League · Mon, Oct 5 · 18:45 · France vs Belgium
Likeliest: France win · 54%
A 26% draw. The market says 20%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
France54%63%−9
OursMarket
Draw26%20%+6
OursMarket
Belgium20%17%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 83% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 37% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 80% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 79% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
France
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 2 · v Italy (H)1-1
- Sep 28 · at Belgium (A)1-0
- Sep 25 · at Turkey (A)0-0
- Jul 18 · v England (H)4-6
- Jul 14 · v Spain (H)0-2
Belgium
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 2 · v Turkey (H)3-0
- Sep 28 · v France (H)0-1
- Sep 25 · at Italy (A)0-0
- Jul 10 · at Spain (A)1-2
- Jul 7 · at USA (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | France | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.