3rd Division, Group 3 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · Førde vs Djerv 1919
Likeliest: Djerv 1919 win · 55%
We make it 32% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 21%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Førde22%22%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%18%+5
OursMarket
Djerv 191955%60%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 79% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 40% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 82% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 27% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Førde
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Austevoll (A)2-3
- Oct 3 · v Fyllingsdalen (H)6-2
- Sep 26 · at Asane Fotball 2 (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Fana (H)0-3
- Sep 16 · v Aalesunds FK (H)2-2
Djerv 1919
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 12 · v SK Brann II (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Gneist (A)5-0
- Sep 26 · v Sogndal IL II (H)2-1
- Sep 17 · at Stord (A)4-3
- Sep 12 · v Austevoll (H)5-2
| Last 10 games | Førde | Djerv 1919 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 10-0-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-1 | 4-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.