3rd Division, Group 3 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 3 · 13:00 · Førde vs Fyllingsdalen
Likeliest: Førde win · 58%
A 20% away win. The market says 10%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Førde58%77%−20
OursMarket
Draw23%13%+10
OursMarket
Fyllingsdalen20%10%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 90% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 23% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 87% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 89% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Førde
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 26 · at Asane Fotball 2 (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Fana (H)0-3
- Sep 16 · v Aalesunds FK (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Vard Haugesund (A)0-9
- Sep 5 · at Os TF (A)0-2
Fyllingsdalen
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 26 · v Stord (H)1-2
- Sep 21 · at SK Brann II (A)0-7
- Sep 12 · v Gneist (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Sogndal IL II (A)0-7
- Aug 30 · v Austevoll (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Førde | Fyllingsdalen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 0-0-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 3.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.