Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:30 · Fredrikstad FK vs Tromsø IL
Likeliest: Tromsø IL win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fredrikstad FK31%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Tromsø IL41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fredrikstad FK
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Vålerenga IF (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · at Stjørdals/Blink (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Sarpsborg 08 (H)1-1
- Sep 4 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Lillestrøm SK (A)4-1
Tromsø IL
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Sep 20 · v HamKam (H)3-2
- Sep 16 · at Alta IF (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Rosenborg BK (A)3-5
- Sep 6 · at Kristiansund BK (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v Sarpsborg 08 (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Fredrikstad FK | Tromsø IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.