Serie B (Italy) · Sun, Apr 5 · 15:15 · Frosinone vs Calcio Padova
Likeliest: Frosinone win · 59%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Frosinone59%63%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
Calcio Padova20%17%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 62% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 83% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 37% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 79% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Frosinone
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Mar 22 · at Südtirol (A)3-1
- Mar 18 · v Bari 1908 (H)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Cesena (A)2-2
- Mar 8 · v Sampdoria (H)3-0
- Mar 4 · v Pescara (H)2-2
Calcio Padova
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Mar 21 · v Palermo (H)0-1
- Mar 17 · at Venezia (A)1-3
- Mar 14 · v Catanzaro (H)1-3
- Mar 7 · at Avellino (A)0-1
- Mar 3 · v Spezia (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Frosinone | Calcio Padova |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.