Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Apr 25 · 13:00 · Frosinone vs Carrarese
Likeliest: Frosinone win · 55%
We make it 52% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Frosinone55%58%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
Carrarese20%19%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 60% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 57% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 42% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 75% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Frosinone
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Apr 18 · at Modena (A)2-1
- Apr 10 · v Palermo (H)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Calcio Padova (H)2-0
- Mar 22 · at Südtirol (A)3-1
- Mar 18 · v Bari 1908 (H)2-1
Carrarese
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Apr 19 · v Pescara (H)2-2
- Apr 12 · at Reggiana (A)0-2
- Apr 6 · v Spezia (H)3-1
- Mar 22 · at Bari 1908 (A)3-0
- Mar 18 · v Sampdoria (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Frosinone | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.