Coppa Italia (Italy) · Sun, Aug 16 · 16:00 · Frosinone vs Juve Stabia
Likeliest: Frosinone win · 66%
A 66% home win. The market says 56%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Frosinone66%56%+10
OursMarket
Draw18%24%−6
OursMarket
Juve Stabia16%20%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 52% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 80% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 44% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 76% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 74% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Frosinone
DrawWinWinWinWin
- May 8 · v Mantova (H)5-0
- May 1 · at Juve Stabia (A)1-0
- Apr 25 · v Carrarese (H)3-0
- Apr 18 · at Modena (A)2-1
- Apr 10 · v Palermo (H)1-1
Juve Stabia
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- May 19 · at Monza (A)1-2
- May 16 · v Monza (H)2-2
- May 12 · at Modena (A)1-0
- May 8 · at Südtirol (A)1-1
- May 1 · v Frosinone (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Frosinone | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.