Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Aug 23 · 16:30 · Frosinone vs Juventus
Likeliest: Frosinone win · 57%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Frosinone57%12%+45
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
Juventus21%67%−46
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 48% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 33% | +46 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 88% | −45 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 16% | +58 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Frosinone
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 16 · v Juve Stabia (H)4-1
- May 8 · v Mantova (H)5-0
- May 1 · at Juve Stabia (A)1-0
- Apr 25 · v Carrarese (H)3-0
- Apr 18 · at Modena (A)2-1
Juventus
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- May 24 · at Torino (A)2-2
- May 17 · v Fiorentina (H)0-2
- May 9 · at Lecce (A)1-0
- May 3 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-1
- Apr 26 · at AC Milan (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Frosinone | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.