Serie B (Italy) · Fri, Apr 10 · 18:30 · Frosinone vs Palermo
Likeliest: Frosinone win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 41%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Frosinone46%41%+5
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Palermo28%31%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 59% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 57% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Frosinone
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Apr 5 · v Calcio Padova (H)2-0
- Mar 22 · at Südtirol (A)3-1
- Mar 18 · v Bari 1908 (H)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Cesena (A)2-2
- Mar 8 · v Sampdoria (H)3-0
Palermo
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Apr 5 · v Avellino (H)2-0
- Mar 21 · at Calcio Padova (A)1-0
- Mar 17 · v Juve Stabia (H)2-2
- Mar 14 · at Monza (A)0-3
- Mar 8 · at Carrarese (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Frosinone | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.