Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Feb 7 · 14:00 · Frosinone vs Venezia
Likeliest: Frosinone win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 29%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Frosinone53%29%+25
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Venezia22%44%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 56% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 56% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 71% | −25 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 40% | +31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Frosinone
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Jan 31 · at Virtus Entella (A)1-1
- Jan 24 · v Reggiana (H)1-0
- Jan 17 · at Monza (A)2-2
- Jan 10 · v Catanzaro (H)2-0
- Dec 27 · at Empoli (A)1-1
Venezia
WinWinWinWinWin
- Jan 31 · v Carrarese (H)2-1
- Jan 24 · at Mantova (A)5-2
- Jan 17 · v Catanzaro (H)3-1
- Jan 10 · at Reggiana (A)3-1
- Dec 27 · v Virtus Entella (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Frosinone | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.