Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Sep 6 · 13:00 · Frosinone vs Venezia
Likeliest: Frosinone win · 62%
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Frosinone62%35%+27
OursMarket
Draw19%28%−9
OursMarket
Venezia19%37%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 63% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 65% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 72% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 48% | +28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Frosinone
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 2 · at Sassuolo (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Fiorentina (A)3-0
- Aug 23 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Juve Stabia (H)4-1
- May 8 · v Mantova (H)5-0
Venezia
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 2 · at Udinese (A)1-2
- Aug 28 · at AC Milan (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · v Lecce (H)0-2
- Aug 15 · v Modena (H)3-2
- May 8 · v Palermo (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Frosinone | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.