Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Dec 5 · 19:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Likeliest: Borussia Mönchengladbach win · 46%
A 46% away win. The market says 34%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0533%39%−6
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
Borussia Mönchengladbach46%34%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 56% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 66% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 61% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 53% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Nov 30 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-4
- Nov 27 · at Universitatea Craiova (A)0-1
- Nov 21 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)1-1
- Nov 9 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
- Nov 6 · v Fiorentina (H)2-1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Dec 2 · v St. Pauli (H)1-2
- Nov 28 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-0
- Nov 22 · at Heidenheim (A)3-0
- Nov 8 · v FC Köln (H)3-1
- Nov 1 · at St. Pauli (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FSV Mainz 05 form·Borussia Mönchengladbach form·Head-to-head record