Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Mar 22 · 14:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 44%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0553%44%+9
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Eintracht Frankfurt25%29%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 53% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 58% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 71% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 56% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 60% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Mar 19 · v Sigma Olomouc (H)2-0
- Mar 15 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-0
- Mar 12 · at Sigma Olomouc (A)0-0
- Mar 7 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-2
- Feb 28 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
Eintracht Frankfurt
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Mar 14 · v Heidenheim (H)1-0
- Mar 8 · at St. Pauli (A)0-0
- Mar 1 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-0
- Feb 21 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-3
- Feb 14 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FSV Mainz 05 form·Eintracht Frankfurt form·Head-to-head record