Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 7 · 14:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 49%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0549%47%+3
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
FC Augsburg29%27%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 51% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 64% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Jan 31 · at RB Leipzig (A)2-1
- Jan 24 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)3-1
- Jan 17 · at FC Köln (A)1-2
- Jan 13 · v Heidenheim (H)2-1
- Jan 10 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-2
FC Augsburg
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Jan 31 · v St. Pauli (H)2-1
- Jan 24 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-1
- Jan 18 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-2
- Jan 15 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.