Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 25 · 13:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 51%
We make it 40% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0526%22%+5
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
FC Bayern München51%57%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 67% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 43% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 78% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 28% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Apr 19 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)1-1
- Apr 16 · at Strasbourg (A)0-4
- Apr 12 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
- Apr 9 · v Strasbourg (H)2-0
- Apr 4 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)2-1
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 22 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-0
- Apr 19 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)4-2
- Apr 15 · v Real Madrid (H)4-3
- Apr 11 · at St. Pauli (A)5-0
- Apr 7 · at Real Madrid (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 8-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FSV Mainz 05 form·FC Bayern München form·Head-to-head record