Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, May 10 · 17:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 69%
A 69% home win. The market says 56%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0569%56%+13
OursMarket
Draw18%23%−6
OursMarket
FC Union Berlin13%20%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 57% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 57% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 80% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 44% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 77% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 74% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
LossLossDrawLossWin
- May 3 · at St. Pauli (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v FC Bayern München (H)3-4
- Apr 19 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)1-1
- Apr 16 · at Strasbourg (A)0-4
- Apr 12 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
FC Union Berlin
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- May 2 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
- Apr 24 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-3
- Apr 18 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Heidenheim (A)1-3
- Apr 5 · v St. Pauli (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.