Bundesliga (Germany) · Tue, Jan 13 · 19:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 53%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0553%54%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Heidenheim24%20%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 53% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 80% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 73% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Jan 10 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-2
- Dec 21 · v St. Pauli (H)0-0
- Dec 18 · v Samsunspor (H)2-0
- Dec 14 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-2
- Dec 11 · at Lech Poznań (A)1-1
Heidenheim
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Jan 10 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
- Dec 21 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-4
- Dec 13 · at St. Pauli (A)1-2
- Dec 6 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-1
- Nov 29 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.