Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 15 · 14:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0541%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
SC Freiburg33%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Mar 7 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)3-1
- Mar 1 · at RB Leipzig (A)2-1
- Feb 22 · v St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Feb 16 · at Heidenheim (A)2-0
- Feb 8 · v FC Augsburg (H)0-0
SC Freiburg
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Mar 8 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-0
- Mar 2 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-0
- Feb 21 · v Werder Bremen (H)5-0
- Feb 15 · at St. Pauli (A)1-0
- Feb 8 · v Heidenheim (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.