Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Apr 12 · 17:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 62%
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0562%42%+20
OursMarket
Draw21%29%−9
OursMarket
SC Freiburg18%29%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 51% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 57% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 71% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 58% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 71% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 59% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 9 · v Strasbourg (H)2-0
- Apr 4 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)2-1
- Mar 22 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)2-1
- Mar 19 · v Sigma Olomouc (H)2-0
- Mar 15 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-0
SC Freiburg
LossWinWinLossWin
- Apr 9 · v Celta de Vigo (H)3-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
- Mar 22 · at St. Pauli (A)2-1
- Mar 19 · v Genk (H)5-1
- Mar 15 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.