Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Mar 19 · 17:45 · FSV Mainz 05 vs Sigma Olomouc
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 41%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0541%70%−29
OursMarket
Draw23%19%+4
OursMarket
Sigma Olomouc36%11%+26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 52% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 44% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 89% | −26 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 30% | +29 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 81% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 87% | −34 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Mar 15 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-0
- Mar 12 · at Sigma Olomouc (A)0-0
- Mar 7 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-2
- Feb 28 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
- Feb 20 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-1
Sigma Olomouc
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Mar 15 · v Karviná (H)2-2
- Mar 12 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)0-0
- Mar 7 · at Jablonec (A)2-1
- Mar 1 · v Bohemians 1905 (H)1-0
- Feb 26 · at Lausanne Sport (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.