Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 22 · 14:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0551%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
St. Pauli23%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Feb 16 · at Heidenheim (A)2-0
- Feb 8 · v FC Augsburg (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Werder Bremen (A)0-1
- Jan 25 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-0
- Jan 19 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-2
St. Pauli
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Feb 15 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
- Feb 9 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-2
- Feb 1 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-1
- Jan 26 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-0
- Jan 18 · at Heidenheim (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-3 | 2-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 14% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 14% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 29% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.