Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Dec 21 · 14:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 45%
A 31% away win. The market says 25%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0545%47%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
St. Pauli31%25%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 75% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 66% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Dec 18 · v Samsunspor (H)2-0
- Dec 14 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-2
- Dec 11 · at Lech Poznań (A)1-1
- Dec 5 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-1
- Nov 30 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-4
St. Pauli
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Dec 13 · v Heidenheim (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at FC Köln (A)1-1
- Dec 2 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)2-1
- Nov 29 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-3
- Nov 23 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.