Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Apr 9 · 19:00 · FSV Mainz 05 vs Strasbourg
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 44%
We make it 61% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0544%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Strasbourg30%27%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 62% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Apr 4 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)2-1
- Mar 22 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)2-1
- Mar 19 · v Sigma Olomouc (H)2-0
- Mar 15 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-0
- Mar 12 · at Sigma Olomouc (A)0-0
Strasbourg
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Apr 4 · v Nice (H)3-1
- Mar 22 · at Nantes (A)3-2
- Mar 19 · v Rijeka (H)1-1
- Mar 15 · v Paris (H)0-0
- Mar 12 · at Rijeka (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.