Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Nov 21 · 19:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs TSG Hoffenheim
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 40%
We make it 65% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0536%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim40%36%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 64% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 52% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Nov 9 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
- Nov 6 · v Fiorentina (H)2-1
- Nov 1 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-1
- Oct 29 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-2
- Oct 26 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-2
TSG Hoffenheim
LossWinWinWinWin
- Nov 8 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
- Nov 2 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)3-2
- Oct 25 · v Heidenheim (H)3-1
- Oct 19 · at St. Pauli (A)3-0
- Oct 3 · v FC Köln (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.