Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 7 · 14:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 31%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0546%31%+15
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart33%44%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 59% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 62% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 56% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 69% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 41% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Feb 28 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
- Feb 20 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-1
- Feb 13 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-4
- Feb 7 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-0
- Jan 31 · at RB Leipzig (A)2-1
VfB Stuttgart
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Mar 1 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)4-0
- Feb 26 · v Celtic (H)0-1
- Feb 22 · at Heidenheim (A)3-3
- Feb 19 · at Celtic (A)4-1
- Feb 14 · v FC Köln (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.